There’s a lot of speculation among the hardcore about what Monday brings. If anyone has a good handle on it, I’m open to hearing it.

I’m a bear, and an unrepentant one at that. I think the long term trend is substantially lower, but I’m not making big directional day trading bets. I do a little day trading around my core positions, which is 90% short at this point. I’m long COR (rallied nicely the last few weeks), GE, and hold calls on QQQQ that I picked up Friday. Everything else is short.

But with Friday’s action, I hear a lot of calls for doom on Monday. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen - but all of my indicators tell me that it isn’t locked up.

Here is a daily chart of the Q’s:



We closed right on top of trendline support from the March 17 lows.

Same story on the Dollar/Yen, a favored indicator of mine, along with the 10-year treasury:



Don’t confuse me with someone re-evaluating their bias - I am not. I’m just saying that on the most basic of technicals….. doom is not demanded on Monday.

But he may show up unannounced.

Friday was the sort of day that bears had been waiting for. The unexpected surge in new jobless claims - unexpected by the analysts that is, but not most bears - combined with a huge drop-off in new car sales - 10.7% versus a year ago, the 7th consecutive month of decline - to bring turmoil back to the markets broadly.

Ten-year treasury yields dropped 8 basis points, and commodities rallied across the board as the dollar slid and investors looked for a place to park money outside of equities. The mood darkened across all markets, and investors are coming to the realization that the credit crisis is hardly behind us. The President is calling for some follow up stimulus package before the first effort is fully distributed, and lawmakers are wrangling over proposals to intervene in the troubled housing market.

The man on the street knows that things are deteriorating, and the activity in Washington leads one to believe that they are expecting things to get worse - maybe much worse.

Friday was, of course, a playground for the bears. Next week could be one long bear party. But if the markets decide to rally, it could be major - the wall of worry can’t get much higher. And with good reason.